If you're wondering why the market might suddenly go green on Tuesday or Wednesday, here's your answer: Iran and the United States are signaling real progress in peace talks, and investors are already pricing in what could happen next.According to Iranian state television, Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei confirmed that "the final draft of an agreement text between Iran and the US is still under review," with mediation efforts focused on finalizing a memorandum of understanding. More importantly, he added: "Over the past week, the process has been moving toward a convergence of views."But here's the kicker - the timeline. Baghaei said "we must wait and see where the situation will lead in the next three or four days." That means by Tuesday or Wednesday, we could have clarity on whether this deal actually happens.Multiple reports indicate the two countries are closing in on a 60-day ceasefire extension with a nuclear framework attached. If that sounds abstract, let me translate it into portfolio terms.What this means for your money:First, oil. Any peace deal with Iran means the potential for Iranian oil to flow back into global markets. That's bearish for oil prices short-term, which means lower gas prices for consumers but pain for energy stocks. If you're holding major oil producers, watch this closely.Second, defense stocks. De-escalation in the Middle East typically means less urgency for defense spending in the region. Defense contractors that have benefited from Middle East tensions could see profit-taking.Third, and most importantly for broad market investors: geopolitical risk comes off the table. Markets hate uncertainty. A credible Iran-US framework removes a major tail risk that's been hanging over equities. That's the kind of news that can trigger a broad market rally, especially in sectors that have been held back by geopolitical concerns.The S&P 500 has been range-bound partly due to Middle East tensions. Remove that overhang, and you get what traders call a "risk-on" environment. Tech, financials, and consumer discretionary stocks tend to benefit most when geopolitical concerns ease.Now, the usual caveats apply. Peace talks are notoriously fragile. Baghaei himself acknowledged "there are still issues that need to be addressed through discussions with mediators." Until signatures are on paper, this could still fall apart.But markets don't wait for certainty - they price in probability. And right now, the probability of a deal is higher than it's been in years. That's why smart money is already positioning.What should you do? If you're underweight equities and have been waiting for an entry point, the next few days could provide clarity. If this deal happens, expect a pop. If it falls apart, we're back to the status quo.Either way, pay attention Tuesday and Wednesday. The "next three or four days" Baghaei mentioned could determine whether your portfolio ends the week in the green or stuck in neutral.