Iran conducted missile test-firings and issued explicit threats against United States naval vessels on the same day preliminary nuclear negotiations opened in Oman, in a carefully choreographed display of military confidence that Western analysts described as an attempt to enter diplomatic talks from a position of demonstrated strength rather than existential pressure.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei warned on Monday that Iran possesses weapons capable of sinking American warships "to the bottom of the sea," remarks delivered to military commanders in Tehran as his government's representatives sat down with intermediaries in Muscat for the first substantive nuclear discussions since the collapse of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action framework.
"A US warship may be dangerous, but so are our weapons," Khamenei said, according to South China Morning Post reporting. "If they make a mistake, we will not hesitate."
The parallel missile exercise, conducted in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, involved both ballistic and cruise missile systems, according to Iranian state media. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to target surface vessels with precision-guided munitions in the narrow waterways of the Gulf, where several US carrier strike groups maintain rotational presence.
To understand today's headlines, we must look at yesterday's decisions. The diplomatic track toward renewed nuclear talks has been years in the making, complicated at every stage by mutual mistrust, regional proxy conflicts, and the domestic political constraints of both governments. The Trump administration's 2018 withdrawal from the JCPOA and the subsequent "maximum pressure" sanctions campaign led Iran to accelerate its uranium enrichment, pushing Tehran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium to levels that have alarmed non-proliferation experts.
Iran now possesses enough 60%-enriched uranium to produce multiple nuclear devices if enrichment were pushed to weapons-grade levels — a technical threshold that the International Atomic Energy Agency has confirmed while insisting it has no evidence of an active weapons program. The IAEA's ability to monitor Iranian facilities has also been severely curtailed, as Tehran removed advanced surveillance cameras in 2022.
The talks in Oman — a traditional intermediary between Washington and Tehran — are understood to involve indirect communications rather than face-to-face US-Iranian dialogue, which Tehran has resisted publicly while permitting in private channels. The scope of any potential agreement remains deeply unclear, with fundamental disagreements persisting over the permanence of restrictions, the pace of sanctions relief, and Iran's regional ballistic missile program.
Khamenei's dual-track messaging — threatening warships while permitting talks — is consistent with his documented approach to previous negotiations. During the 2014-2015 talks that produced the original JCPOA, Iran similarly conducted military exercises and issued pointed warnings to demonstrate that negotiations occurred on its terms, not under duress.
American officials have declined to comment substantively on the Oman talks, citing the sensitivity of the process. A State Department spokesperson acknowledged only that the administration was "exploring diplomatic avenues" to address Iranian nuclear developments.
Israeli officials reacted with alarm to reports of the discussions. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government has consistently opposed any agreement that does not permanently dismantle Iran's enrichment capability, arguing that temporary restrictions with sunset clauses merely delay rather than prevent weaponization. Israel's military has maintained what officials describe as a "preventive option" for strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
The missile tests and threats may also be intended for a domestic audience. Khamenei's government faces persistent economic pressure from sanctions and public discontent sharpened by years of inflation and unemployment. Displays of military capability serve to reinforce the regime's narrative of resistance against external pressure — a narrative essential to its domestic legitimacy.
Whether the Oman talks produce a substantive outcome or collapse under the weight of mutual demands remains to be seen. What is unmistakable is that Iran has chosen to begin this diplomatic process under the shadow of a loaded gun pointed at the sea-lanes of the Persian Gulf.
