Israel's military leadership has assessed that Tehran would likely retaliate against Israeli targets if Washington launches large-scale strikes on Iran, placing the Jewish state in a precarious position between American military decisions and Iranian reprisals.
The Israel Defense Forces evaluation, reported by Israel Hayom, concludes there is "a more than reasonable chance" that Iran would fire long-range missiles at Israel in response to any US offensive. The assessment comes as Washington continues deploying both offensive and defensive military assets to the Middle East, despite ongoing diplomatic talks in Geneva.
Israeli air defense systems remain on heightened alert, with all intelligence branches operating at peak readiness. The Home Front Command is increasing preparedness measures, though officials have not yet ordered large-scale reserve mobilization.
The primary concern among Israeli security officials centers on potential Iranian miscalculation. Military analysts warn that Tehran might launch a preemptive strike out of fear of being targeted, with whichever side achieving surprise in a first strike gaining significant tactical advantage. "The coming days could prove highly complex and tense," one official cautioned.
In Israel, as across contested regions, security concerns and aspirations for normalcy exist in constant tension. The triangular dynamic places Israel in an uncomfortable position—vulnerable to Iranian retaliation for American military decisions while simultaneously maintaining its own concerns about Tehran's nuclear program advancement.
Unlike American hesitation during previous confrontations, Israeli officials have indicated that Jerusalem would likely join any US-led offensive if Iran comes under attack. This posture reflects Israel's view that its security interests are directly threatened by Iranian military capabilities, particularly missile and drone programs that have repeatedly targeted Israeli territory.
The assessment arrives as diplomatic efforts in Geneva receive positive coverage in Iranian state media, creating a contrast between public negotiation narratives and military preparation realities. Israeli intelligence officials are parsing Iranian communications for signs of Tehran's actual intentions versus propaganda messaging designed for domestic and international audiences.
The situation also tests Israel's relationship with the Trump administration, which has adopted a more confrontational stance toward Iran than previous American governments. While Jerusalem generally welcomes tougher US policy on Iranian nuclear development, Israeli military planners must prepare for scenarios where they bear the consequences of American military action.
Israel's multi-layered air defense architecture—including Iron Dome, David's Sling, and Arrow systems—would face its most significant test since the establishment of the defense network if Iran launches a full-scale missile barrage. Previous Iranian attacks, including the massive April 2024 drone and missile assault, demonstrated both the capabilities and limitations of Israeli defenses when facing saturation attacks.
The regional implications extend beyond the immediate US-Iran-Israel triangle. Hezbollah in Lebanon, Syria's Iranian-aligned militias, and Yemen's Houthi forces represent potential additional fronts that could activate in support of Tehran, forcing Israel into simultaneous multi-front defensive operations.
For Israeli civilians, the heightened tensions revive memories of October 2023 and subsequent regional escalations. Public shelter preparedness and civil defense messaging have increased, though authorities aim to balance readiness with avoiding public panic that could disrupt economic activity and daily life.
The coming days will test whether diplomatic channels in Geneva can defuse military tensions or whether the region faces another cycle of escalation with Israel caught between great power confrontation and its own security imperatives.
