Iceland could join the European Union by 2028, the country's Foreign Minister said this week, marking a dramatic reversal from the nation's 2015 decision to withdraw its membership application. The move would strengthen Brussels' presence in the strategically vital Arctic region amid growing geopolitical competition over resources and shipping routes.
Foreign Minister Thórdís Kolbrún Reykfjörd Gylfadóttir told Reuters that Reykjavik is exploring a fast-track accession process that could see the North Atlantic island nation of 380,000 people become the EU's 28th member state within two years. The timeline is ambitious but not impossible, given Iceland's existing integration through the European Economic Area and Schengen agreements.
"The security landscape has fundamentally changed since 2015," the minister said. "What was once a question of fishing quotas and sovereignty has become a question of Arctic security and geopolitical alignment. Iceland cannot remain neutral in a world where neutrality itself has become a strategic liability."
The shift reflects Iceland's reassessment of security priorities following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and growing tensions over Arctic resources. The melting ice cap has opened new shipping routes and exposed vast mineral deposits, transforming the Arctic from a frozen periphery into a contested strategic frontier. Russia and China have both increased their Arctic presence, while Norway – an Arctic nation outside the EU but inside NATO – has called for stronger Western coordination in the region.
For Brussels, Icelandic membership would be a geopolitical prize. The island sits astride critical North Atlantic shipping lanes and hosts a NATO air base at Keflavik, making it essential to transatlantic security. EU membership would formalize Iceland's alignment with European defense and foreign policy, complementing its NATO commitments and strengthening the bloc's northern flank.
said , a Brussels-based defense analyst.
