Hungarian authorities have banned Kalshi, an American prediction market platform, after users began betting on when Prime Minister Viktor Orbán would leave office, according to Hungarian outlet 24.hu.
The ban is absurd enough to be memorable while highlighting serious democratic backsliding in an EU member state. This is the second prediction market site Hungarian regulators have blocked for hosting markets on Orbán's political future.
Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated platform in the United States, allows users to bet on political and economic outcomes—elections, legislation, even Federal Reserve decisions. One of its markets asked when Orbán would cease being Hungary's Prime Minister, with options ranging from specific dates to "still in office after 2030."
Hungarian authorities declared the site violated gaming regulations and ordered internet service providers to block access. The official justification: Kalshi lacked proper Hungarian licensing for offering gambling services.
The real reason: the government doesn't like its citizens speculating on when Orbán loses power.
This matters because prediction markets aggregate information. When bettors put money behind their beliefs, market prices reveal collective expectations about future events—often more accurately than polls. A liquid market betting on Orbán's tenure would show whether informed Hungarians expect his 14-year rule to continue.
Apparently, Budapest prefers that information stay hidden.
The ban fits Orbán's broader pattern of controlling information flows:
Media consolidation: Allies of Orbán's Fidesz party control roughly 80% of Hungarian media through a complex network of holding companies.
Judicial capture: Orbán has packed courts with loyalists, ensuring legal challenges to government actions rarely succeed.
Electoral engineering: Gerrymandering and changes to voting rules entrench Fidesz despite the party winning only 53% of votes in 2022.
Economic pressure: Businesses that oppose the government lose state contracts and face tax audits.
Blocking a prediction market is minor compared to those systematic changes. But it reveals the regime's insecurity. Confident governments don't fear their citizens betting on political outcomes.
The European Commission, which has frozen billions in EU funds to Hungary over rule-of-law concerns, has not commented on the Kalshi ban. The incident is too small to trigger formal proceedings. Too absurd to ignore entirely.
Prediction markets continue operating everywhere else in the EU—including markets on Orbán's future. Hungarian users with VPNs can still access them. The ban accomplishes nothing except signaling that Budapest considers speculation about Orbán's political mortality a threat worth suppressing.
Which, of course, is the point. When you ban people from betting on your departure, you're advertising your fear they might be right.
