Tensions are escalating in the Horn of Africa as the fragile peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea shows signs of unraveling, threatening to destabilize a region already struggling with conflict and climate shocks.
The deteriorating relationship between Addis Ababa and Asmara has alarmed regional observers, coming just over six years after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed won the Nobel Peace Prize for ending two decades of hostility with Eritrea. The 2018 peace deal, which saw the reopening of embassies and borders, was hailed as a breakthrough for the region.
But that optimism has faded. Recent months have seen renewed rhetoric between the two capitals, with disputes over Red Sea access and the aftermath of the Tigray conflict creating new flashpoints. Ethiopia's pursuit of sea access through neighboring countries has particularly rankled Eritrea, which views any Ethiopian presence near its coastline as a security threat.
"The peace deal was never fully implemented," said Dr. Mehari Taddele Maru, a Horn of Africa specialist at the European University Institute. "The borders never truly reopened in a sustainable way, and the underlying issues—demarcation, economic integration, regional security—were never addressed."
The Tigray war further complicated relations. Eritrean forces fought alongside Ethiopian federal troops against the Tigray People's Liberation Front, but the withdrawal and aftermath have left both countries with competing narratives and unresolved grievances.
The renewed tensions carry serious implications beyond the two nations. The Horn of Africa is already grappling with drought in Somalia, instability in Sudan, and the ongoing conflict in Tigray. Another Ethiopia-Eritrea confrontation would devastate humanitarian conditions and potentially draw in regional powers.
Egypt, locked in its own dispute with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, has been strengthening ties with Eritrea. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates maintain strategic interests in Red Sea ports. The regional architecture is fragile, and another war could shatter it.
"The Horn cannot afford another war," said Kjetil Tronvoll, a professor at Oslo Metropolitan University who has studied the region for decades. "The 1998-2000 border war cost 70,000 lives and achieved nothing. Both countries are economically fragile, their populations exhausted. This serves no one."
For Abiy Ahmed, the deterioration represents a painful reversal. His Nobel Prize, awarded for making peace with Eritrea, now stands in contrast to the regional conflicts that have defined his tenure. The Tigray war, which killed hundreds of thousands, and now renewed tensions with Eritrea have tarnished his legacy.
The African Union, headquartered in Addis Ababa, has remained largely silent on the tensions, a reflection of its limited leverage in mediating disputes involving host nation Ethiopia.
Regional analysts emphasize that diplomatic channels remain open, and neither side appears to want war. But in the Horn of Africa, miscalculation can quickly spiral into catastrophe. The 2018 peace deal showed what was possible. Its unraveling shows how easily progress can slip away.
54 countries, 2,000 languages, 1.4 billion people. The Horn of Africa deserves better than another generation lost to conflict.
