A distant conflict in the Strait of Hormuz could determine whether Sri Lankan farmers have the fertilizer they need to grow food for 22 million people.
If tensions escalate in the narrow waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula, the consequences will extend far beyond oil markets. According to a Bloomberg report citing UN officials, disruptions to the strait would directly threaten agricultural supply chains across South Asia.
A large portion of the world's fertilizer production and petrochemical exports originate from the Middle East, with many shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz. For Sri Lanka, a nation still recovering from economic crisis, the timing could not be worse.
The Fertilizer Lifeline
Sri Lankan farmers depend on imported urea and other essential fertilizers to cultivate rice, tea, vegetables, and other crops that feed the nation and support the rural economy. A disruption in supply would mean higher fertilizer prices, shortages during critical planting seasons, and reduced harvests.
The country has already experienced what happens when fertilizer access collapses. In 2021, the government abruptly banned agrochemical imports, triggering a catastrophic decline in crop yields. Rice production fell by nearly 40 percent. Tea harvests plummeted. Food prices surged. Farmers suffered devastating losses.
"We cannot afford to repeat those mistakes in the middle of an economic recovery," said Ranil Senarathne, an agricultural economist at the University of Colombo. "When global chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz are threatened, the ripple effects reach all the way to the fields of farmers and the dinner tables of our people."
