Gold just broke $4,900 an ounce, and if you're wondering whether this is the start of a new era or the top of a bubble, welcome to the club. Even people who follow precious metals for a living are scratching their heads at this one.
Here's what we know: gold has had an extraordinary run. Up roughly 25% in the past year, it's outperformed the S&P 500, crushed bonds, and made real estate look sluggish. For an asset that's supposed to be "boring" and "safe," that's a pretty wild ride.
The traditional reasons to own gold—inflation hedging, currency debasement, geopolitical uncertainty—are all flashing. The dollar has weakened significantly. Central banks, especially China and Russia, have been accumulating gold reserves at the fastest pace in decades. And trust in traditional financial institutions feels lower than it's been since the 2008 crisis.
But here's where it gets interesting:
Gold isn't behaving like it usually does. Normally, when real interest rates rise (which they have), gold goes down because it pays no yield. That hasn't happened. Gold is climbing despite headwinds that should be suppressing it. That suggests something structural is changing.
One theory: central banks are diversifying away from dollar reserves faster than the market fully appreciates. When China and India buy gold, they're not looking for 10% returns—they're making a statement about the international financial order. That's demand that doesn't care about quarterly earnings or Fed policy.
Another factor: retail investors are piling in. Reddit forums are full of people asking if they're "too late" to buy gold, which is typically a warning sign. When your barber starts asking about gold ETFs, that's usually not a great entry point. But then again, skeptics have been saying that for the past $1,000 of gains, so who knows.
What to actually do about this:
If you don't own any gold and you're thinking about starting a position, don't chase the rally. Dollar-cost average in over several months. Yes, you might miss some upside. You'll also avoid buying the top of a mania.
If you already own gold and you're sitting on big gains, congrats. This is where you need to decide if you're investing or speculating. If your thesis was "5-10% portfolio allocation as insurance," then $4,900 gold doesn't change that. If your thesis was "gold to $10,000," then you're making a bet on currency collapse, and you should own that decision.
One thing to watch: mining stocks haven't kept pace with gold prices. Normally, miners amplify the move in the underlying metal. The fact that they're lagging suggests the market isn't fully convinced this rally is sustainable. Or it means mining stocks are deeply undervalued. Take your pick.
The uncomfortable truth: Nobody knows if $4,900 gold is the new normal or the top. The people telling you they know for sure are selling something—either gold or clicks. What is clear is that something has changed in how investors and institutions view currency risk. Whether that justifies current prices is a different question entirely.
If they can't explain it simply, they're probably hiding the fact that nobody really knows. And right now, that includes everyone calling for $10,000 gold.
