Germany's planned forward brigade in Lithuania — a flagship commitment to NATO's eastern flank defence and the most significant permanent stationing of German troops on Russia's border since the end of the Cold War — remains critically short of personnel, with the Bundeswehr unable to attract sufficient volunteers to fill even the initial cadre positions, according to a report by RBC Ukraine.
The Lithuania Brigade, announced with considerable political fanfare in 2022 following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, was envisioned as a full combat brigade of approximately 4,800 troops stationed permanently in Vilnius — a transformation from the rotational battalion-level presence that NATO had maintained in the Baltic states since 2017. The German government committed to having initial units in place by 2025 and a fully operational brigade by 2027.
The reality has fallen well short of the ambition. According to figures cited by RBC Ukraine, the brigade has managed to recruit only a fraction of its required strength, with some estimates suggesting fewer than a third of authorised positions filled. Bundeswehr officials have attributed the shortfall to a combination of factors: Germany's historically low military culture since reunification, the demanding nature of a permanent posting in a foreign country that requires soldiers to relocate their families, and a broader recruitment crisis that has seen the Bundeswehr's total strength fall below 180,000 active personnel — well short of its target.
To understand today's headlines, we must look at yesterday's decisions. The Bundeswehr has faced structural personnel challenges for decades. Following German reunification in 1990 and the subsequent "peace dividend" reductions, Germany's military was progressively cut from a Cold War peak of 495,000 troops to a post-2010 low of approximately 163,000. The 2022 Zeitenwende — Chancellor Olaf Scholz's declared historical turning point in German security policy, backed by a €100 billion special defence fund — was supposed to reverse this trajectory.
Yet reversing decades of cultural and structural decline has proven far more difficult than announcing it. Germany abolished conscription in 2011, eliminating the pipeline of mandatory service that had kept troop numbers stable. Attempts to reintroduce some form of compulsory service have stalled in coalition negotiations, with the current government unable to reach consensus on whether a renewed draft is politically feasible.
The Lithuania Brigade's recruitment difficulties are symptomatic of a broader Bundeswehr crisis that extends beyond headcounts. Retention rates among experienced non-commissioned officers — the backbone of any effective military — remain poor. Equipment shortages, administrative dysfunction, and a culture that analysts describe as risk-averse and bureaucratically suffocating have undermined morale. Several serving officers have gone public with their frustrations, describing a force technically committed to war-fighting but institutionally unprepared for it.
For Lithuania and the other Baltic states, the brigade's understrength status carries strategic significance beyond mere numbers. The presence of German troops on their territory was intended to provide a tripwire — a physical commitment so tangible that any Russian attack would automatically draw Germany into direct conflict, lending credibility to NATO's Article 5 guarantee. An undermanned brigade is a weaker tripwire, and adversaries assess tripwires with cold-eyed realism.
Lithuanian officials have been diplomatically restrained in their public commentary on the brigade's status, aware that pushing Berlin too hard risks political backlash in a country where public support for defence spending, though growing, remains contested. Behind closed doors, Baltic frustration with German delivery on its stated commitments is, according to several diplomatic sources, considerably more pointed.
The Bundeswehr has pledged to accelerate recruitment and has opened the Lithuania posting to volunteers with enhanced pay and allowances. Whether those incentives prove sufficient to attract the thousands of personnel required remains, as of February 2026, an open and urgent question.
