A dramatic shift in European public opinion reveals that 73% of EU citizens now believe the bloc should pursue its own path independent of Washington, as support for the United States as Europe's primary ally has plummeted 20 percentage points in just two years.
The findings, released by the Bertelsmann Stiftung research institute, paint a picture of a transatlantic relationship under unprecedented strain. According to the survey, which polled all 27 EU member states plus the United Kingdom between September 2024 and March 2026, only 31% of respondents now identify the U.S. as Europe's most valuable ally.
Even more striking: 58% of Europeans no longer view Washington as trustworthy, representing a collapse in confidence that transcends the usual fluctuations of public opinion polling.
To understand today's headlines, we must look at yesterday's decisions. The deterioration reflects not merely reactions to the current American administration, but structural issues that predate Donald Trump's return to the presidency. Trade disputes, surveillance controversies, and diverging approaches to China have steadily eroded the foundation of the postwar alliance.
The concept of "strategic autonomy" has moved from academic papers to mainstream political discourse across European capitals. Once dismissed as French grandstanding, it now commands majority support among populations from Warsaw to Lisbon.
But what does strategic autonomy mean in practice? The survey data suggests Europeans envision greater independence in foreign and security policy without necessarily abandoning the Western alliance structure. 63% still support NATO as a security cornerstone, indicating that Europeans seek rebalancing rather than rupture.
Defense policy represents the most visible arena for this shift. European nations have accelerated military spending and industrial cooperation since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, recognizing that over-reliance on American security guarantees creates strategic vulnerability.
Technology policy offers another frontier. European frustration with Silicon Valley's dominance has driven regulatory initiatives like the Digital Markets Act and aggressive antitrust enforcement against U.S. tech giants. The push for technological sovereignty extends to semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and telecommunications infrastructure.
Trade policy reveals similar tensions. While European and American economies remain deeply integrated, disputes over tariffs, subsidies, and regulatory standards have become routine rather than exceptional. The Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act, which Europeans viewed as protectionist, accelerated calls for European industrial policy to match U.S. subsidies.
Notably, the data shows Europeans are not pivoting toward China to fill the perceived void. Skepticism toward Beijing remains high across the continent, reflecting concerns about human rights, trade practices, and geopolitical ambitions.
Instead, Europeans are strengthening ties with what they term "like-minded partners." The survey identified the United Kingdom and Canada as increasingly important relationships, suggesting a desire to maintain Western cooperation while diversifying beyond exclusive U.S. dependence.
The shift cuts across demographic groups, though it is particularly pronounced among older Europeans who remember the Cold War alliance. Younger generations, having known only a unipolar world dominated by U.S. power, appear more willing to imagine alternative arrangements.
For policymakers in Washington, these numbers should prompt serious reflection. The transatlantic relationship has weathered storms before, but this erosion of public confidence represents something potentially more fundamental than typical alliance management challenges.
The question facing both Europe and America is whether strategic autonomy and alliance solidarity can coexist. European leaders insist they can; American officials often view European independence initiatives as threatening to alliance cohesion.
History suggests that alliance structures require constant renegotiation to reflect changing power dynamics and interests. The current moment may represent not the dissolution of the transatlantic partnership, but its overdue adaptation to 21st-century realities.
