In a seismic shift that calls into question seven decades of transatlantic partnership, a majority of Europeans now view the United States as a greater threat to their security than China, according to polling data published by Politico Europe on Wednesday.
The findings, which surveyed citizens across multiple EU member states, represent what analysts describe as a watershed moment in European-American relations. For the first time since the establishment of NATO in 1949, European publics are expressing greater fear of their traditional protector than of geopolitical rivals.
To understand today's headlines, we must look at yesterday's decisions. The erosion of European confidence in Washington did not occur overnight. It is the culmination of policy shifts that began with the previous administration's questioning of NATO's relevance, continued through unpredictable trade disputes, and has now accelerated under recent military actions in the Middle East that were undertaken without consultation with European allies.
The poll's timing is particularly significant, coming amid escalating tensions between the US and multiple nations. European capitals have grown increasingly concerned about what they perceive as unilateral American militarism, particularly regarding recent operations against Iran.
"What we are witnessing is not simply a temporary diplomatic disagreement," said François Heisbourg, a senior adviser at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Paris, speaking to reporters on Tuesday. "This represents a fundamental reassessment by European societies of where threats to their security originate."
The survey reveals particularly stark findings in Germany and France, the EU's two largest economies, where concerns about American policy now outweigh anxieties about China's expanding global influence. Even in traditionally Atlanticist nations such as Poland and the Baltic states, where memories of Soviet occupation run deep, skepticism of US intentions is growing.
This shift carries profound implications for NATO, the military alliance that has served as the cornerstone of Western security architecture for three-quarters of a century. European defense ministers are now openly discussing the need for "strategic autonomy" – a euphemism for reducing dependence on American military capabilities.
The European Union has already begun accelerating plans for joint defense procurement and military coordination. France announced this week an expansion of its defense budget, while Germany continues to debate rearmament measures that would have been politically unthinkable a decade ago.
Beijing has not been slow to recognize the opportunity. Chinese diplomats in Brussels have intensified engagement with EU officials, positioning China as a stable and predictable partner in contrast to what they characterize as American volatility.
However, European officials remain wary of Chinese intentions, particularly regarding human rights in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, as well as Beijing's support for Russia during its ongoing confrontation with Ukraine. The poll's findings do not suggest Europeans have embraced China as an alternative partner, but rather that they view American actions as posing more immediate risks to European interests.
American officials have sought to downplay the findings. A State Department spokesperson, speaking on background, described the polling as a "snapshot of a moment" that does not reflect the "deep and enduring bonds" between the US and Europe. Yet privately, Washington insiders acknowledge growing concern about the erosion of soft power and public support for the alliance.
The Pentagon's recent alleged threats against the Vatican, Britain's public condemnation of Israeli strikes in Lebanon despite American support, and Australia's decision to limit intelligence sharing in the Middle East all point to a broader pattern: American allies are increasingly willing to distance themselves from Washington's foreign policy positions.
From a correspondent's perspective, having covered NATO summits since the alliance's post-Cold War expansion, the current moment feels fundamentally different. The bureaucratic language of "burden-sharing" and "capability gaps" that dominated past transatlantic disagreements has given way to something more existential: a European questioning of whether American leadership serves European interests at all.
The implications extend beyond military security. European businesses have grown concerned about being caught in American trade wars or sanctions regimes. The extraterritorial application of US law – particularly regarding sanctions on Iran – has created friction with European companies and governments alike.
As European voters head to the polls in coming months, the question of relations with Washington is likely to feature more prominently than in any election since the Iraq War in 2003. Political parties across the spectrum, from the far-left to the nationalist right, have found common ground in calling for greater European independence from American influence.
Whether this represents a temporary aberration or a permanent realignment of the global order remains to be seen. But for those who have spent careers covering the transatlantic relationship, the poll's findings confirm what has been evident on the ground for months: the foundation of the Western alliance is under stress in ways not seen since its inception.
