Brussels is doing something it hasn't done in seven decades: preparing for a world where American security guarantees and economic integration are no longer givens.
The shift isn't rhetorical. It's structural, budgetary, and increasingly irreversible.
European defense spending is accelerating beyond NATO's 2% GDP target, with Poland now at 4.7%, the Baltic states above 3%, and even Germany - yes, Germany - planning €500 billion in defense investment over the next decade. According to Politico Europe, European Commission officials are drafting frameworks for joint defense procurement that would have been politically impossible 18 months ago.
"We are witnessing the end of the Pax Americana in Europe," a senior EU diplomat told reporters last week, speaking on condition of anonymity. "Not because we want it, but because we can no longer rely on it."
The financial architecture is shifting too. The European Central Bank is quietly encouraging member states to reduce dollar reserves. France and Germany are pushing for a true Capital Markets Union - the EU project that's been "imminent" for two decades - with new urgency. The message: if Washington weaponizes the dollar, Europe needs alternatives.
Trade policy is being rewritten. The EU is fast-tracking agreements with Australia, India, and Latin America that previously moved at Brussels' famously glacial pace. The implicit logic is clear: diversify away from American markets before tariffs make the choice for you.
But here's where it gets complicated for Eastern Europe. Poland, the Baltic states, and Romania remain acutely aware that European defense spending, however impressive on paper, doesn't equal American military capability. A Polish defense official put it bluntly: "France's nuclear deterrent doesn't extend to Warsaw. America's does - or did."
The structural challenge is immense. Europe spent decades building an economic model predicated on American security, Chinese manufacturing, and Russian energy. Two of those three pillars have now collapsed. The third is cracking.
This isn't about Donald Trump. Trump accelerated trends that predated him and will outlast him. Europe's strategic autonomy push began under the Biden administration. The war in Ukraine turbocharged it. Trump's return simply removed any remaining illusions about transatlantic reliability.
The question isn't whether Europe will decouple from America - it won't, entirely. But the 75-year period where European foreign policy essentially meant choosing which American position to support is ending.
Brussels decides more than you think. And increasingly, it's deciding to stand on its own.
