European Union officials are openly expressing hope that Sunday's Hungarian parliamentary election will end Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's 16-year tenure, in an unprecedented acknowledgment of Brussels' frustration with one member state's ability to hold hostage the bloc's response to its defining security crisis.
The candor from EU diplomats and officials, speaking to Reuters and other outlets this week, breaks with the institution's traditional reluctance to comment on member states' internal politics. But the extraordinary nature of Hungary's obstruction—blocking aid packages to Ukraine, vetoing sanctions on Russia, and opposing EU military initiatives—has pushed Brussels past the point of diplomatic restraint.
"There is widespread hope that the election outcome will allow for a more constructive Hungarian position on Ukraine and security policy," one senior EU official told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity. "One country should not be able to paralyze 26 others on the most important questions facing Europe."
The sentiment reflects deep exasperation across EU capitals. Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Hungary has emerged as the primary obstacle to unified European action. Orbán has maintained close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, opposed arms deliveries to Kyiv, and leveraged the EU's consensus-based decision-making process to extract concessions and delay critical measures.
Most dramatically, Budapest has blocked a €50 billion EU aid package for Ukraine that was meant to provide budgetary support through 2027. The package, considered essential to keeping the Ukrainian government functioning amid war, has required repeated negotiations and workarounds as Orbán alternately demanded exceptions to sanctions policy or unrelated changes to EU funding rules.
The blockades have forced the EU into creative institutional contortions. Aid has been routed through alternative mechanisms. Sanctions packages have been delayed or watered down to secure Hungarian acquiescence. Military training programs for Ukrainian forces have been structured to allow Hungarian opt-outs. The result has been a patchwork response that officials privately acknowledge has been less effective than unified action would have been.
To understand today's headlines, we must look at yesterday's decisions. The EU's consensus requirement for foreign policy and sanctions decisions made sense when the union was smaller and more culturally homogenous. But as the bloc expanded eastward to include former Warsaw Pact states, the potential for a single government to exercise veto power over critical decisions became apparent. Poland's previous government occasionally used similar tactics before its electoral defeat in 2023. Now Hungary stands alone as the consistent outlier.
"The institutional design wasn't meant to handle a situation where one member state is effectively aligned with an adversary on major security questions," said Camino Mortera-Martinez, head of the Brussels office at the Centre for European Reform. "But changing the rules requires unanimity, which Hungary will obviously never support."
Polls suggest Sunday's election is the closest Hungary has seen since Orbán returned to power in 2010. A united opposition coalition has narrowed what was once an overwhelming Fidesz advantage, with several surveys showing a statistical tie. If the opposition prevails, the new government has pledged to end Hungary's obstructionism on Ukraine and restore normal relations with EU institutions.
For EU officials, an opposition victory would resolve immediate tactical problems while raising longer-term strategic questions. If institutional function depends on the outcomes of individual member states' elections—and those elections can produce governments fundamentally at odds with core EU values—what does that say about the sustainability of the union's consensus-based model?
Germany and France have tentatively explored proposals to allow qualified majority voting on certain foreign policy decisions, which would prevent single-state vetoes. But such reforms face legal and political obstacles, not least the requirement that all members agree to diminish their own veto power. Smaller states particularly value the protection that unanimity provides against being steamrolled by larger members.
In the meantime, Orbán's blockades have had real consequences. Military analysts believe delayed weapons deliveries contributed to Ukraine's difficulties during the summer 2023 counteroffensive. Energy sanctions that took months to negotiate gave Russian exporters time to establish alternative arrangements. Even the signal of disunity within the EU has arguably encouraged Moscow to believe Western support for Ukraine might eventually fracture.
"Every time Orbán blocks something or forces a delay, Putin sees evidence that the West can be divided," said Ulrich Speck, a Berlin-based analyst of European foreign policy. "That perception influences Russian strategy, making a long war more likely because they think time is on their side."
The current situation has also strained Hungary's relationships with its immediate neighbors. Poland, Slovakia, and Romania all border Ukraine and view Russian aggression as a direct threat. Orbán's pro-Moscow stance has isolated Budapest within Central Europe, reversing the regional cooperation that characterized the immediate post-Cold War decades.
Even if the opposition wins Sunday, questions remain about how quickly a new Hungarian government could reverse course. The country faces significant economic challenges—high inflation, currency weakness, and suspended EU funds over rule-of-law concerns. Opposition leaders would need to manage a difficult transition while restoring international relationships that Orbán damaged over more than a decade.
But for Brussels, simply having a Hungarian government willing to engage constructively would represent a major shift. The baseline expectation is not that Hungary become the most pro-Ukraine voice in the EU, but merely that it stop blocking consensus that 26 other members support.
As one EU diplomat put it this week: "We're not asking for Hungarian leadership. We're asking for them to stop being the one country preventing everyone else from leading."
