In a speech that signals Ethiopia may be sliding toward renewed civil war, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has begun framing the looming conflict in explicitly ethnic terms - rallying his own Oromo constituency against what he calls "haters" preparing to attack them.
"The Oromo haters are coming for us with knives," Abiy declared in his latest address, according to accounts circulating on Ethiopia's social media. "They are coming to attack us. We shall be united and face our haters. We have made mistakes before but this is time for us to stand united against our haters."
The speech marks a dramatic rhetorical shift for a prime minister who won the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize and initially presented himself as a pan-Ethiopian unifier. Now, as military tensions escalate across Ethiopia's fragmented regions, Abiy appears to be adopting the ethnic mobilization playbook - framing the coming war as anti-Oromo.
The timing is telling. Unlike during the 2020-2022 Tigray War, when Abiy could count on Amhara regional forces and Eritrea's military support, he now faces isolation. Amhara militias known as Fano have turned against the federal government. Eritrea's Isaias Afwerki, once Abiy's closest ally, has withdrawn cooperation and may even support opposition forces seeking Abiy's removal.
"Abiy has no ally to support him inside Ethiopia," notes analysis on the Ethiopia subreddit where the speech was discussed. "Eritrea will also not support him. They might even end up backing Tigray Defense Forces and Fano with the hope of removing Abiy."
Dr. Alemayehu Fentaw, a political analyst at Addis Ababa University, says Abiy's ethnic appeal reflects desperation. "When you have lost your coalition, you retreat to your base," he explained via email. "But the Oromo are not monolithic. Many supported him in 2018 because he promised reform and prosperity. That promise is broken."
The Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), an armed group that has fought the federal government for years, represents a particularly difficult challenge for Abiy's ethnic mobilization strategy. The OLA claims to fight for Oromo rights - against an Oromo prime minister. That internal division complicates any attempt to rally Oromos around ethnic solidarity.
Civil society activists in Addis Ababa report growing war fatigue across all ethnic groups. "People are exhausted," said one activist who requested anonymity due to security concerns. "Abiy thinks he can rally Oromos by claiming persecution, but ordinary people - Oromo, Amhara, Tigray, everyone - just want the fighting to stop."
The speech also raises questions about whether Abiy can maintain control of the federal military. His Oromo-dominated security apparatus has faced defections, and regional forces in Tigray and Amhara have proven capable of sustained resistance.
Yonas Mulugeta, a former Ethiopian diplomat now based in Nairobi, sees the speech as a preview of escalation. "When leaders start using language like 'they are coming for us with knives,' they are preparing their supporters for violence," he said. "This is how genocidal rhetoric begins."
International observers are watching nervously. The 2020-2022 Tigray War killed an estimated 600,000 people and displaced millions. A new multi-front conflict involving Tigray, Amhara, and potentially Eritrea could be even more destabilizing.
The African Union, headquartered in Addis Ababa, has remained largely silent on Ethiopia's internal crisis - a reflection of both diplomatic paralysis and the organization's historical reluctance to challenge member states.
The central question now is whether Abiy's ethnic mobilization will succeed. In 2020, he managed to rally enough support to launch the Tigray War. But that was before the economic collapse, before the Fano uprising, before Eritrea turned away.
"Will Oromos buy this?" asks the Reddit post that first highlighted the speech. "I truly don't know."
Neither does anyone else. But as Ethiopia slides toward what could be its most devastating conflict yet, Abiy Ahmed is betting that ethnic fear will prove stronger than war exhaustion.
Fifty-four countries, 2,000 languages, 1.4 billion people. Ethiopia's fractures may determine whether the Horn of Africa faces renewed catastrophe.
