Mario Draghi stood before faculty at the University of Leuven on Sunday and delivered what may be the most consequential call for European transformation since the Maastricht Treaty: Europe must federalize or face irrelevance.
"Europe must choose," the former Italian prime minister and European Central Bank president declared. "Become a federation to be a power."
Draghi's timing is deliberate. As Donald Trump's second administration throws NATO's future into doubt and the war in Ukraine grinds into its third year, Europe's illusion of strategic autonomy while relying on American security guarantees has collapsed. The former ECB chief argued that among nations caught between US and Chinese influence, "only the Europeans have the option of becoming themselves a true power."
The question, Draghi insisted, is stark: should Europe remain merely a large market subject to others' priorities, or take concrete steps to become a genuine geopolitical power?
His answer requires a fundamental shift - "from confederation to federation." And he offered proof of concept from Brussels' own track record. "Where Europe has federated - on trade, competition, single market, monetary policy - we are respected as a power and negotiate as a single entity," he said, citing recent commercial agreements with India and Latin America.
Translation from EU-speak: the European Commission already acts like a government in areas where member states have surrendered sovereignty. Draghi wants to expand that model to foreign policy, defense, and industrial strategy.
"The global order is dead," Draghi stated flatly. "The threat is what will replace it."
While acknowledging that a world with reduced trade and weaker rules would hurt Europe economically, Draghi warned of a more existential danger: simultaneous subordination, division, and deindustrialization. An Europe unable to defend its interests, he argued, cannot long preserve its values.
The speech lands differently in different capitals. In Paris, Emmanuel Macron has championed "strategic autonomy" for years. In Berlin, the new coalition government faces a public increasingly skeptical of American reliability. In Warsaw and Tallinn, where faith in US security guarantees is crumbling, federalist talk triggers deep anxiety about losing sovereignty to Brussels bureaucrats.
And in Budapest and Rome? Viktor Orbán and Giorgia Meloni will treat Draghi's federalist vision as precisely the overreach they've warned against for years.
Yet Draghi's credibility exceeds that of typical Brussels federalists. He saved the euro with three words in 2012 - "whatever it takes" - and delivered. He speaks the language of markets and power, not just ideals. When he warns that an Europe unable to defend its interests cannot preserve its values, hard-nosed capitals listen.
The test will come in concrete proposals. Draghi has promised a comprehensive competitiveness report for the European Commission this spring. If it follows his Leuven logic, expect calls for:
- Common EU defense procurement and capability development - Qualified majority voting on foreign policy (ending national vetoes) - Joint European debt for strategic industries - Accelerated decision-making on trade and sanctions
Brussels decides more than you think. And Mario Draghi just told Europe it needs to decide even more - or watch someone else make those decisions for it.
The question now is whether member states will choose the federation he demands, or continue the confederation he says will fail. That choice may define whether Europe matters in 2050.
