At Davos this week, European leaders quietly crossed a threshold: they agreed, in principle, that Europe must build independent strategic capacity—militarily, economically, technologically—without assuming American support.

It was, according to Politico Europe, a meta-narrative moment. Not a single decision. Not one policy. But a shared realization that the transatlantic relationship as Europeans have known it for 75 years is fundamentally changing.

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz—often at odds on economics—found common ground on the need for European autonomy. So did leaders from Poland, Italy, and the Netherlands. The consensus wasn't just about defense. It extended to technology, energy, and industrial policy.

"This was the moment European leaders stopped pretending American strategic guarantees are eternal," one senior EU diplomat told Politico. "The question is whether they follow through with money and political will."

The real test comes next. European strategic autonomy requires:

Defense: Scaling up military production, integrating defense industries across borders, and potentially creating joint European forces—all while maintaining NATO membership.

Technology: Reducing dependence on American cloud infrastructure, semiconductors, and AI platforms—without sacrificing innovation.

Energy: Building resilience after the Russia shock, including potentially revisiting nuclear power expansion.

Finance: Creating genuine capital markets union to fund this transition without relying on American investment.

Each requires political choices European leaders have avoided for decades. Germany would need to spend far more on defense. France would need to share its nuclear technology. Eastern European states would need to trust EU security guarantees as much as NATO's.

The historical parallel is telling: Europe has declared strategic autonomy ambitions before—after the Iraq War, after the 2008 financial crisis, after Brexit. Each time, the rhetoric faded when immediate crises passed.

What makes this different? The convergence of threats. A newly protectionist and unreliable America. An expansionist Russia. A rising China. And Europe's own economic stagnation.

The Davos consensus represents European elites acknowledging reality. Whether they act on it—with budgets, laws, and institutional reforms—remains the question.

Brussels decides more than you think. But only if national capitals give it the resources and authority to do so.