Beijing sees an opening to turn President Donald Trump's tariffs to its advantage by reshaping global trade in ways that would insulate its $19 trillion economy from U.S. pressure far into the future, according to a Reuters investigation.
China is exploiting the uncertainty created by Trump to stitch its vast manufacturing base into the world's biggest economic blocs, including the European Union, Gulf States, and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). The push involves accelerating efforts to clinch some 20 trade deals in total, many years in the making, despite widespread concerns about China's overproduction, uneven market access, and soft domestic demand.
A Reuters review of 100 Chinese-language articles by state-backed trade scholars written since 2017 reveals a systematic push by China's policy advisers to reverse-engineer U.S. trade policy and neutralize Washington's containment strategy. The review, drawn from over 2,000 trade-strategy papers endorsed by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) and Peking University, which advise top leaders, shows policy insiders broadly accept that painful structural change is a price worth paying for China's long-term dominance of global commerce.
"Don't interrupt your opponent when he is making a mistake," one Chinese official told Reuters of Trump's disruptive trade agenda, embodying the martial arts principle of 借力打力 (jiè lì dǎ lì)—using the opponent's force against them.
In China, as across Asia, long-term strategic thinking guides policy—what appears reactive is often planned. The emphasis on embedding China so deeply in global trade that partners cannot afford to decouple under U.S. pressure reflects decades of strategic planning now coming to fruition.
From Propaganda to Pragmatism
The shift in China's tone reflects its calculations. A year ago, Beijing was invoking Mao Zedong and China's ability to fend off the West in the Korean War with martial propaganda. Now, as China prepares to welcome Trump in April, its diplomats are touring the world urging trading partners to join it in defending multilateralism and open trade.
In January, China dispatched its top diplomat to tiny Lesotho—which Trump initially hit with a 50% tariff—to pledge development cooperation. On Saturday, state media said China would implement zero tariffs on imports from 53 African countries. Meanwhile, China is pitching AI-powered customs systems to neighbors and working to retool digital infrastructure that underpin commerce.
Chinese officials are now working to fast-track stalled trade talks. Since 2017, China has been negotiating with countries including Honduras, Panama, Peru, South Korea, and Switzerland. China's foreign minister Wang Yi surprised European negotiators in November by raising the prospect of a free-trade agreement with Brussels during talks with his Estonian counterpart.
A month later, Wang pressed the Gulf Cooperation Council to conclude long-running talks on a free-trade agreement. In January, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer agreed with Chinese leader Xi Jinping to launch a feasibility study into a trade-in-services agreement that could reduce barriers for British firms. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has said he will seek "strategic partnerships" with China during a trip next week.
The deal reached with Canada during Prime Minister Mark Carney's January visit to Beijing—which slashes tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles—was the first of many aimed at breaking U.S. leverage, according to interviews with 10 people, including Chinese officials and trade diplomats.
The Trillion-Dollar Contradiction
China's pitch faces a fundamental challenge: its $1.2 trillion trade surplus. Some member countries of the CPTPP worry Chinese manufacturers may use improved market access to funnel excess low-cost goods abroad, while China's domestic demand remains sluggish.
Wendy Cutler, chief negotiator during the Obama administration for the Trans-Pacific Partnership, acknowledged the window for Beijing to champion trade and multilateralism but said China needed to go beyond talk. "And with its huge trade imbalances, as well as some of the coercive measures it's now taking against countries like Japan, it's hard to see how they're walking the walk," Cutler told Reuters.
A senior European trade diplomat dismissed Beijing's overtures as "pure Chinese propaganda," saying Brussels had no plans for a trade deal. Chinese advisers are undeterred, noting the EU and China had negotiated a landmark 2020 investment deal during Trump's first term, though it was frozen in 2021 before taking effect amid a dispute over human-rights sanctions.
Pascal Lamy, former WTO director-general and EU trade commissioner, said Chinese firms are sending more goods to Europe than the bloc can absorb. "It's a mystery how, given the nature of the regime, given the sort of collective cleverness, how is it that they have not succeeded in rebalancing their economic model?" he said.
Strategic Planning Meets Political Reality
Some Chinese advisers contend in the policy papers that Beijing should study how Washington has "weaponized" global institutions to contain China, and exploit openings created by Trump's willingness to abandon or sideline multilateral bodies such as the World Trade Organization. Others argue Beijing should focus on influencing global standards in fields such as intellectual property through initiatives like Xi's Belt and Road program.
China's recently upgraded deal with Southeast Asian states, for example, focuses on AI-driven and digital trade, where China hopes to secure a first-mover advantage. At its "Friendship Port" on the Vietnamese border, state media says home-grown AI solutions have slashed customs waiting times by 20%, enabling faster deliveries.
China's commerce minister Wang Wentao has said growing imports is a priority as Beijing prepares to launch its next five-year plan in March, in line with a commitment to raise consumption's share of GDP. But rebalancing is a long-term project. Trump has three years left in office, and the next administration could revert to building coalitions to contain China.
As Zhao Pu, now a researcher at CASS's Institute of American Studies, wrote in 2023: China must "study in depth the logic of U.S. actions within international institutions and the possible next steps it may take to better respond to increasingly fierce strategic offensives in the future."
