"Carney has managed to do something quite difficult—he's stood up for Canadian interests without antagonizing Washington to the point of retaliation," said Nik Nanos, chairman of Nanos Research, in comments to CTV News. "Canadians appreciate that balance."

<h2>A Remarkable Political Comeback</h2>

The 48% support level is particularly striking given the Liberal Party's position just over a year ago. When Trudeau stepped down in early 2025, polls showed the Liberals trailing the Conservatives by double digits, with many predicting a devastating defeat in the next federal election.

Carney's selection as leader—and his immediate assumption of the prime minister's office without a general election—was initially controversial. Critics argued that Canadians deserved a say in who would lead the country. But the new prime minister moved quickly to address key voter concerns, particularly around housing affordability and cost of living.

The government introduced a package of measures including tax credits for first-time homebuyers, restrictions on foreign property ownership in major cities, and federal incentives for municipalities to approve new housing construction. While it's too early to measure the full impact of these policies, polling suggests they've resonated with younger voters who felt priced out of homeownership.

<h2>Provincial Reactions and Regional Dynamics</h2>

The Liberal surge shows strength across most regions, though with notable variations. Support remains particularly strong in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, while British Columbia shows growing Liberal support after years of NDP dominance federally.

In Alberta, traditionally Conservative territory, the Liberals remain in third place but have made modest gains, particularly in urban Calgary and Edmonton. Saskatchewan remains the government's weakest region.

Quebec presents a more complex picture. While the Liberals have gained ground against the Conservatives, the Bloc Québécois continues to hold significant support. Carney's fluent French and his years living in Montreal during his Bank of Canada tenure have helped, though he still faces skepticism in more nationalist quarters of the province.

<h2>Opposition Response</h2>

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who had appeared poised for a strong election victory a year ago, has seen his party's support slide to 31% in the Nanos poll. The Conservatives have struggled to define themselves against Carney, whose economic credentials blunt some of their traditional attacks on Liberal fiscal management.

The NDP, under Jagmeet Singh, sits at a distant third with 15% support, squeezed between the centrist Liberals and the Conservatives.

<h2>Looking Ahead</h2>

While the polling represents a strong position for the government, political observers caution against reading too much into numbers this far from an election. Carney must call an election by October 2025 at the latest, though speculation is growing that he may seek a mandate sooner to capitalize on the Liberal Party's current strength.

The prime minister has been careful not to appear overconfident. Speaking to reporters in Ottawa last week, he emphasized that "there's much work still to do" on housing, healthcare, and climate change.

But for now, the former central banker turned political leader has achieved something that seemed impossible just a year ago: transforming the Liberals from a party facing potential defeat into one commanding the strongest support of any Canadian government in recent memory. Whether that support translates into a renewed mandate will be the next test of Carney's political skills.

3 hours ago