Sixty-four percent of Canadians now regard the United States as a possible threat to Canadian sovereignty — a figure that represents a historic rupture in public opinion between two nations that have long defined themselves as each other's closest allies and natural neighbours.
The survey, conducted by Nanos Research for CTV News and published on February 17, 2026, polled 1,009 Canadians with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Only 19 percent of respondents expressed no concern about American intentions toward Canadian sovereignty, while 17 percent were neutral. It is among the most striking recorded shifts in the modern history of Canadian public opinion on the bilateral relationship.
In Canada, as Canadians would politely insist, we're more than just America's neighbor — we're a distinct nation with our own priorities. And right now, a clear majority of Canadians are saying, with characteristic restraint but unmistakable firmness, that they feel that distinctness is under pressure.
The numbers reflect a bilateral relationship that has deteriorated sharply under the presidency of Donald Trump, who has repeatedly threatened to annex Canada as a "51st state," referred to Prime Minister Mark Carney dismissively as "governor," and levied a sustained campaign of tariffs and trade provocations. Trump's public comments about extending American dominance to encompass not only Canada but Greenland and the Panama Canal have provided the backdrop against which Canadian public opinion has curdled.
A Demographic and Regional Divide
The Nanos data reveals meaningful fault lines within the headline figure. Women express higher levels of concern than men: 69 percent of female respondents view the United States as a possible sovereignty threat, compared to 58 percent of men. Both figures, however, represent clear majorities — suggesting that whatever partisan or demographic variance exists, anxiety about American intentions has become a broadly shared Canadian condition.
Regionally, Atlantic Canada registers higher concern than Prairie provinces, a finding that carries particular political significance. Alberta and Saskatchewan have historically held closer cultural and economic affinities with the American West and have periodically attracted separatist sentiment that Trump has openly encouraged. That even Prairie Canadians are expressing concern at substantial rates suggests the sovereignty anxiety is not solely a Liberal or central-Canadian phenomenon.
Older Canadians — those 55 and above — express the highest levels of concern of any age cohort. That may reflect both longer memories of stable Canadian-American relations and a sharper awareness of how dramatically the current moment diverges from that norm.
NATO Doubts Compound the Anxiety
The survey also tested Canadian confidence in American commitments to collective Western security. Forty-four percent of respondents consider it "somewhat likely" that the United States will withdraw from NATO, while a further 14 percent consider such a withdrawal outright likely. Only 11 percent deem it unlikely.
For a country whose defence posture has been built for decades on the assumption of American commitment to the North Atlantic alliance, these figures represent a profound reckoning. Canada shares the longest undefended border in the world with the United States, and its strategic calculus has long rested on the premise that the two nations are partners, not rivals. That premise is now openly in question.
The Political Stakes
The timing of the survey — released as Canada heads toward a federal election — ensures that sovereignty and the American relationship will be central to the campaign. Prime Minister Mark Carney, who took office following Justin Trudeau's resignation and has sought to project a calm but assertive posture toward Washington, faces pressure to translate the public's anxiety into a coherent and durable policy response.
The Conservative Party of Canada, led by Pierre Poilievre, faces its own complex challenge: its base has traditionally been more sympathetic to American-style conservatism and closer trade ties, yet the poll suggests even conservative-leaning Canadians are not immune to sovereignty concerns. Any political leader who appears insufficiently alarmed by American conduct risks being outflanked on a question that now commands supermajority levels of public attention.
The findings are consistent with a broader pattern of Canadian repositioning visible across government, business, and civil society — including Prime Minister Carney's new defence industrial strategy, unveiled the same day, which explicitly frames Canadian security procurement as a matter of sovereignty rather than mere alliance management.
