In what marks a historic deterioration in the world's longest undefended border relationship, 47 percent of Canadians now consider the United States a greater threat to world peace than Russia, according to new polling data reported by Politico.
The striking shift in Canadian public opinion reflects months of escalating tensions under the Trump administration, driven by aggressive tariff threats, dismissive rhetoric about Canada as a potential "51st state," and what many Canadians perceive as fundamental disrespect for their nation's sovereignty.
The polling reveals unprecedented erosion in Canadian attitudes toward their southern neighbor. Favorable views of the United States have plummeted to their lowest levels since modern polling began, while support for economic and security cooperation has declined sharply across all age groups and political affiliations.
"This represents more than just disagreement over trade policy," explained Roland Paris, former foreign policy adviser to Justin Trudeau, in comments to reporters. "Canadians are questioning fundamental assumptions about the bilateral relationship that have held for generations."
In Canada, as Canadians would politely insist, we're more than just America's neighbor—we're a distinct nation with our own priorities. The polling data reveals the depth of that sentiment, with the anti-American shift cutting across traditional political divides.
The tariff threats have proven particularly damaging. President Donald Trump's repeated suggestions of 25 percent tariffs on Canadian goods, coupled with accusations that Canada exploits trade relationships, have fundamentally altered how Canadians view economic integration with the United States.
Beyond economics, the "51st state" rhetoric has struck a nerve. Comments from American officials suggesting Canada might be better off joining the United States—even in jest—have been received in Ottawa and across the country as profound insults to Canadian independence and national identity.
The implications extend far beyond public sentiment. Canada and the United States maintain the world's most integrated continental defense relationship through NORAD and share critical intelligence through the Five Eyes alliance. The two nations coordinate on everything from Arctic sovereignty to continental missile defense.
"When nearly half of Canadians view the U.S. as a greater threat than Russia, that creates real constraints on what any Canadian government can do in terms of defense cooperation," noted Stephen Saideman, a defense and security expert at Carleton University in Ottawa.
The timing could not be more consequential. Canada faces a federal election within months, with opposition leader Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives holding a substantial lead in polls. The anti-American sentiment has created a rare consensus: all major parties now compete to demonstrate their willingness to stand up to Washington.
Provincial reactions have varied by economic exposure. In Ontario and Quebec, where manufacturing depends heavily on cross-border supply chains, there is anxiety about decoupling from American markets. In Alberta, energy producers worry about access to their largest customer for oil and gas.
Yet even in traditionally pro-American regions, the shift is visible. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, despite her conservative credentials and energy industry ties, has joined other premiers in condemning American tariff threats and demanding federal retaliation measures.
The data also reveals generational divides, with younger Canadians showing the most dramatic shift away from favorable views of the United States. Among Canadians under 35, more than half now view the U.S. as a greater threat than Russia, suggesting the deterioration may have long-term consequences.
Canadian officials have attempted to maintain working relationships with American counterparts while responding to domestic political pressure. Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly has emphasized the need to "stand firm" on Canadian interests while keeping diplomatic channels open.
The business community remains deeply concerned. The United States purchases 75 percent of Canadian exports, and the two economies are intertwined through complex supply chains built over decades under free trade agreements.
"We're watching the foundation of the postwar North American order crack in real time," said Laura Dawson, an expert on Canada-U.S. relations at the Wilson Center. "The question is whether this can be repaired, or whether we're witnessing a fundamental realignment."
The polling also shows declining Canadian support for NATO and collective defense arrangements, raising questions about continental security cooperation. If Canadians increasingly view the United States as a threat rather than a partner, sustaining integrated defense relationships becomes politically difficult.
Arctic sovereignty issues loom large. As climate change opens new northern passages and Russia increases its Arctic presence, Canada has traditionally relied on American partnership for domain awareness and defense. The erosion of trust complicates that cooperation precisely when Arctic security challenges intensify.
The shift also reflects broader concerns about American democracy and reliability. Many Canadians have watched American political dysfunction, including challenges to election results and political violence, with alarm. The perception that the United States is becoming less stable has reinforced desires to distance Canada from its neighbor.
For now, Canadian officials face a delicate balancing act: responding to genuine public anger while maintaining relationships essential to Canadian security and prosperity. The polling suggests that balance will only become more difficult to sustain.
