Bangladesh's interim government is set to sign a bilateral trade agreement with the United States on Monday - just three days before the country's national elections - raising serious questions in the business community about why such a major economic commitment is being made by a caretaker administration.
The deal, scheduled to be signed in Washington DC on February 9, will go into effect regardless of which party wins Thursday's vote. Business leaders in Dhaka are expressing alarm that they had minimal consultation on terms that could reshape Bangladesh's crucial garment export industry.
Rubana Huq, former president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), told local media the timing is "highly suspicious and procedurally questionable." She noted that major trade agreements typically undergo months of stakeholder consultation before signing.
"An interim government exists to maintain stability, not to commit the country to potentially decades-long trade obligations," Huq said. "This should be decided by the elected government that takes office next week."
According to leaked details, the agreement includes tariff reductions on American agricultural imports and pharmaceutical products in exchange for preferential access for Bangladeshi ready-made garments (RMG) - the sector that comprises 85% of the country's export earnings and employs 4 million workers, most of them women.
A billion people aren't a statistic - they're a billion stories. For Nasima Begum, a sewing machine operator at a factory in Gazipur, the trade deal is an abstraction until she knows whether it will protect or threaten her ₹12,000 monthly salary that supports her three children.
The interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, defends the deal as economically necessary and properly negotiated. A spokesperson said the agreement had been in discussion for over a year under the previous Hasina government, and the Yunus administration is simply "completing the paperwork."
But garment industry insiders dispute that characterization. Fazlul Hoque, managing director of Plummy Fashions Ltd, said the final terms differ substantially from earlier draft agreements, particularly regarding labor standards and environmental compliance requirements that could impose significant costs on manufacturers.
"The devil is in the details, and we haven't seen the details," Hoque said. "How can we assess impact when we don't know the compliance timeline or cost estimates?"
Economic analysts worry the agreement may be more favorable to US interests than Bangladeshi ones, given that a caretaker government has limited negotiating leverage and political capital.
Dr. Ahsan Mansur, executive director of the Policy Research Institute in Dhaka, noted that the timing puts Bangladesh at a disadvantage. "The US negotiators know this government has days left. They know Bangladesh can't walk away or demand significant changes. That's not a position of strength."
The political timing also raises eyebrows. With elections on February 12, opposition parties are calling the trade deal an attempt by the Yunus administration to lock in economic policies before they lose power - potentially constraining the incoming government's policy options.
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), leading in pre-election polls, has said it will "review all agreements signed by the interim government" if it wins Thursday's vote. But international trade deals are notoriously difficult to unwind once signed.
International trade law expert Dr. Salman Rahman at Dhaka University warned that attempting to back out could trigger World Trade Organization disputes and damage Bangladesh's credibility with trading partners. "Once signed, this deal will bind Bangladesh for years, regardless of which government is in power," he said.
The US Embassy in Dhaka released a statement Monday saying the agreement represents "a new chapter in US-Bangladesh economic partnership" and will boost bilateral trade, currently valued at $12 billion annually.
But for Bangladesh's business community, the question isn't whether closer US trade ties are desirable - it's whether a government with 72 hours left in office should be making that decision on behalf of 170 million people who are about to elect new leadership.
The deal will be signed Monday afternoon Washington time. By Thursday evening Dhaka time, Bangladesh will have a new government. Whether that government embraces or resists this trade agreement could define the country's economic trajectory for the next decade.
