37.4 percent of Bangladesh's first-time voters intend to vote for Jamaat-e-Islami in upcoming national elections, according to a survey by the Centre for Research and Forecasting (CRF) that has sent shockwaves through the country's political establishment.
The survey, released this week, found that among voters casting ballots for the first time, Jamaat-e-Islami commands more support than the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) at 27 percent and the National Citizen Party (NCP) at 17 percent. The finding represents an extraordinary political shift in a nation founded on secular principles after the 1971 Liberation War.
Bangladesh has 170 million people. Among them, millions of young voters are preparing to cast their first ballots in elections scheduled within the next week. The CRF survey also found that 90 percent of eligible voters expressed willingness to participate in the national polls, suggesting high turnout despite years of political turmoil.
For secular parties and civil society groups, the numbers are alarming. Jamaat-e-Islami, the country's largest Islamist party, opposed Bangladesh's independence in 1971 and several of its leaders have been convicted of war crimes by the International Crimes Tribunal. The party was banned from contesting elections in 2013 but later regained registration.
"This is not just about one party gaining ground. This is about a fundamental challenge to Bangladesh's founding identity as a secular democracy," said Dr. Kamal Hossain, a constitutional expert who helped draft Bangladesh's first constitution, in an interview with The Financial Express.
The surge appears driven by several factors. Youth unemployment in Bangladesh stands at nearly 15 percent, higher than the overall unemployment rate. Inflation has pushed food prices beyond the reach of many families. And corruption scandals have eroded trust in traditional parties.
Rahim Ahmed, a 21-year-old university student in Dhaka, told reporters he plans to vote for Jamaat. "The other parties had their chance. They stole from us. At least Jamaat talks about Islam and honesty," he said.
But minority communities, particularly Hindus who comprise roughly 8 percent of Bangladesh's population, view the trend with deep concern. Reports of harassment by Jamaat workers in pre-election campaigning have surfaced across the country, including testimony from voters who say they were pressured to support the party.
One Hindu voter in Dhaka described encountering Jamaat activists on public transport who attempted to convert him to Islam and insisted Hindus should vote for Jamaat "for security and religious safety." The encounter, lasting 30 minutes, reflected what civil society groups describe as systematic intimidation masked as political outreach.
The BNP, long seen as the main opposition to the Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League, now finds itself competing with Jamaat for opposition votes. The Awami League, which governed for 15 consecutive years until recently, is notably absent from first-time voter preferences in the survey—a sign that younger Bangladeshis are rejecting the political dynasties that have dominated since independence.
Political analysts note that first-time voter preferences don't always predict overall election outcomes. But in a country where nearly 30 percent of the population is under 30, youth voting patterns will shape Bangladesh's political trajectory for decades.
"Bangladesh is at a crossroads," said Meghna Rahman, executive director of the Bangladesh Human Rights Forum. "Do we move forward as a pluralistic democracy, or do we abandon the secular foundations that our freedom fighters died for in 1971? The answer will be written at the ballot box next week."
The election takes place amid heightened security concerns, with authorities deploying additional forces to polling stations across the country. Both international observers and domestic monitoring groups have called for a free and fair process, warning that any perception of manipulation could trigger widespread unrest.
A billion people aren't a statistic—they're a billion stories. For Bangladesh and its 170 million citizens, next week's vote will be one of the most consequential in the nation's 54-year history.
