Leaked government documents reveal that new NDIS eligibility rules will cut 241,000 participants from Australia's disability support scheme over four years, far more than the Albanese government has publicly acknowledged.
The internal briefing papers, obtained by The Guardian, show that stricter access criteria and reassessments will exclude tens of thousands of people with disabilities who currently receive support. The cuts represent roughly 37 percent of people who would otherwise join the scheme under current settings.
The revelations contradict government assurances that reforms would focus on "getting better value" from the scheme rather than denying support to people who need it. NDIS Minister Bill Shorten has repeatedly said the changes target waste and fraud, not participants.
But the documents tell a different story. They show the government expects the number of participants to plateau at around 650,000 by 2030, compared to projections of nearly 900,000 under existing eligibility rules. The difference: 241,000 people with disabilities who won't get support.
Mate, the government said they were cutting waste and cracking down on dodgy providers. Turns out they're also planning to boot a quarter million people with disabilities off the scheme. Bit of a detail to leave out.
The National Disability Insurance Scheme has been a political battleground since its creation, with costs ballooning from initial projections of $22 billion annually to more than $35 billion. Both major parties have committed to bringing spending under control, but the scale of participant reductions has been kept quiet.
The leaked documents reveal several strategies for reducing participant numbers. The most significant is tightening access criteria to exclude people with "mild or moderate" impairments who the government argues can be supported through mainstream services like health and education.
Participants will also face more regular reassessments, with those deemed to have losing access to the scheme. Disability advocates warn this ignores the reality that many conditions fluctuate or are lifelong, and that NDIS support itself often enables people to function better.
