The changes will hit people with psychosocial disabilities particularly hard. The documents show this cohort makes up a disproportionate share of those expected to lose access, despite mental health conditions being among the most debilitating and least understood disabilities.

Shorten defended the reforms when questioned about the leaks, arguing the NDIS was never meant to be the sole disability support system. "We need to ensure the NDIS is sustainable and available for those who need it most," he said. "That means mainstream services stepping up."

But there's the rub: the mainstream services that are supposed to fill the gap barely exist. State health and education systems are already stretched thin, with long waitlists for everything from speech therapy to mental health support. Kicking people off the NDIS without adequate alternatives is a recipe for disaster.

Disability advocacy groups have condemned the planned cuts as a betrayal of the scheme's founding principles. Every Australian Counts campaign director Kirsten Deane said removing a quarter million participants would devastate the disability community.

"These are real people with real disabilities who will lose life-changing support," Deane said. "The government talks about sustainability, but what's the human cost of leaving people without the support they need to live independently?"

The economic case for the cuts is also questionable. While the NDIS is expensive, research shows it delivers significant economic returns by enabling people with disabilities to work, reducing hospital admissions, and preventing family breakdown. Cutting support often just shifts costs to other parts of the system.

The documents also reveal tensions between federal and state governments over who will pick up the tab for people excluded from the NDIS. States have resisted taking on additional responsibilities without federal funding, setting up a potential standoff that could leave people with disabilities caught in the middle.

The planned changes require legislation, giving Parliament an opportunity to scrutinize the reforms. But with both Labor and the Coalition committed to NDIS savings, passage appears likely unless crossbench senators can force amendments.

For the 241,000 people facing exclusion from the scheme, the uncertainty is agonizing. Many have built their lives around NDIS support, from modified housing to support workers to therapy programs. Losing access could mean losing independence, employment, and quality of life.

The NDIS was supposed to be a world-leading scheme that recognized disability support as a right, not charity. But fiscal pressures and political expediency are pushing the scheme back toward the old model: limited support for only the most severely disabled, with everyone else left to fend for themselves.

As one disability advocate put it, "The NDIS was a promise that Australia would support all people with disabilities to live their best lives. Now the government is breaking that promise to save money while handing out tax cuts to property investors. What does that say about our priorities?"