Australia's $368 billion bet on American nuclear submarines is looking shakier by the day, as critics warn that Washington may never deliver the promised Virginia-class subs that underpin the entire AUKUS strategy.
The warning comes from defence analysts and former officials who've watched US submarine production capacity strain under domestic demand, according to The Guardian. The blunt assessment: Canberra is betting the farm on submarines that America can't build fast enough for itself, let alone for allies.
Mate, this matters. AUKUS isn't just a defence deal—it's the foundation of Australia's entire Indo-Pacific strategy. If it collapses, we've burned bridges with France over the scrapped Attack-class submarines, antagonized China, and locked ourselves into a security architecture that doesn't exist.
The numbers tell the story. The US Navy needs two Virginia-class submarines per year just to maintain its current fleet. Right now, American shipyards are struggling to build 1.2 per year. Under AUKUS, Australia is supposed to receive three to five Virginia-class boats starting in the 2030s, followed by a new AUKUS-class design.
Except Washington can't meet its own requirements, and the US Congress has already signaled reluctance to approve submarine exports when the American fleet is undersized. Former Australian officials quoted in the report warn that political winds in Washington could shift dramatically, especially if a future administration questions why US attack subs are heading to Australia when the Pacific Fleet is short.
The alternative? Australia might end up with nothing. The existing Collins-class submarines are aging out. The Attack-class program with France was cancelled. If AUKUS falls through, the Royal Australian Navy faces a genuine capability gap in the 2030s—precisely when tensions with China are expected to peak.
Defenders of AUKUS argue the deal includes provisions for Australian workers to help build submarines in US yards, and that the eventual AUKUS-class boats will be constructed in Adelaide. True enough. But that's a 2040s solution to a 2030s problem, assuming the entire framework survives political and industrial challenges on both sides of the Pacific.
Meanwhile, Pacific Island nations are watching closely. AUKUS is part of a broader great power competition across the region, with China expanding security ties to Solomon Islands, Kiribati, and others. If Australia's nuclear submarine deterrent never materializes, Beijing will draw its own conclusions about Canberra's reliability and Washington's commitments.
The Australian government insists AUKUS remains on track. Perhaps. But betting $368 billion on American shipyards that can't meet American demand requires a level of optimism that current production data doesn't support.
There's a whole continent and a thousand islands down here that matter. Right now, their security architecture is built on submarines that might never arrive.
