Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pursued an increasingly pro-Western orientation, participating in joint military exercises with United States forces and seeking alternative security partnerships. The EU has responded with expanded economic and political cooperation, viewing Armenia as a partner nation capable of deepening integration while maintaining its sovereignty.

The summit agenda focuses on energy security, with Armenia positioned as a potential transit corridor for Caspian energy resources that bypass both Russia and Iran. European officials see an opportunity to reduce dependence on Russian energy while supporting Armenia's economic development.

Yet Armenia's geopolitical rebalancing carries significant risks. The country remains economically dependent on Russia, with remittances from Armenian workers in Russian cities constituting a major income source. Complete rupture with Moscow could trigger economic retaliation, while geographic isolation surrounded by hostile or ambivalent neighbors limits Yerevan's room for maneuver.

The Turkey-Armenia rapprochement, while diplomatically significant, remains constrained by unresolved historical grievances. Ankara continues to reject characterization of the 1915 massacres as genocide, a position deeply opposed by Armenia and its diaspora. Nevertheless, economic pragmatism on both sides creates incentives for normalization, particularly as Turkey seeks to position itself as a regional energy hub.

In the Caucasus, as across mountainous borderlands, ancient identities and modern geopolitics create intricate patterns of conflict and cooperation. Armenia's embrace of European partnership represents not merely a diplomatic shift but a fundamental recalibration of national security strategy, driven by the painful recognition that traditional alliances failed when most needed.

The summit's success will be measured not in declarations but in tangible security and economic commitments. For Armenia, European engagement offers a pathway toward stability and prosperity, though the journey from Moscow's orbit to Brussels' partnership remains fraught with complexity and uncertainty.