Global gas-fired power capacity is poised to surge nearly 50 percent as data centers race to meet the unprecedented energy demands of artificial intelligence, according to a new analysis, marking a dramatic expansion that could derail international climate commitments.
The United States leads the buildout, with projects in development expected to add hundreds of gigawatts of gas-burning capacity to power AI infrastructure. The boom, driven primarily by tech giants' data center expansion, represents the largest planned increase in fossil fuel electricity generation in more than a decade.
The surge directly contradicts climate pledges made at recent UN summits. As governments committed to accelerating renewable deployment and phasing out fossil fuels, tech companies quietly signed contracts for gas power that will lock in emissions for decades.
Yet geothermal energy offers a viable alternative. Advanced geothermal systems can provide 24/7 baseload power without emissions, matching AI's constant electricity demands. Recent projects in Nevada and California demonstrate that next-generation geothermal can deliver power at costs competitive with natural gas, while eliminating the carbon footprint.
"The AI industry faces a choice," said Dr. Sarah Chen, energy systems researcher at Stanford University. "Gas is familiar and fast to deploy, but geothermal offers clean baseload power that actually aligns with corporate climate commitments."
In climate policy, as across environmental challenges, urgency must meet solutions—science demands action, but despair achieves nothing. The renewable milestone shows technological progress enables climate action, even as political will remains insufficient for 1.5°C pathway.
The International Energy Agency warns that current trajectories put the world on track for 2.4°C of warming by 2100, far exceeding Paris Agreement targets. Adding vast new gas capacity makes that math even more challenging, particularly as existing renewable energy capacity has already surpassed fossil fuel generation in many regions.
Tech companies defend the gas buildout as necessary for AI development, arguing that intermittent renewables cannot match 24/7 data center loads. But energy experts note this overlooks rapidly advancing battery storage and underestimates geothermal potential. Google and Microsoft have begun investing in enhanced geothermal systems alongside their gas contracts.
Climate justice advocates emphasize the inequity of wealthy nations' AI boom driving fossil fuel expansion while vulnerable countries face climate impacts. Bangladesh and Pakistan endure devastating floods, while East Africa battles prolonged drought—yet developed nations add gas capacity to train AI models.
The buildout also threatens to strand assets. As carbon pricing and climate regulations tighten, gas plants built today may become economically unviable within years. Shareholders increasingly question whether fossil fuel infrastructure represents prudent long-term investment.
The next 18 months will prove critical. If the gas expansion proceeds unchecked, it will establish energy infrastructure that persists for 30 to 40 years, making climate targets mathematically impossible. If tech companies pivot toward geothermal and storage-backed renewables, AI could drive clean energy innovation rather than climate backsliding.
The choice remains open, but the window narrows daily.
